The Vine

30% of New Year’s resolutions are broken within one week. By Valentine’s Day that figure jumps to 80%. All told, it’s estimated that 97% of NYRs are unsuccessful.

To be sure, a lot of those resolutions never had much resolve in the first place; they were simply stories we told ourselves to feel better about past behavior. (And I’m as guilty as anyone. No finger pointing going on here.)

But even when we pursue goals with the discipline of a monk, our efforts to change are almost always done in by one factor: They’re too complex.

Losing weight, for example, is not a singular process. It requires making changes in a number of inter-related and ingrained habits — not just diet and exercise, but also time management, shopping based on meal planning rather than impulse, turning off the TV and going to bed earlier, etc. — any one of which by itself is a challenge. Collectively, they can be daunting in the extreme. And when we don’t see immediate results, we get discouraged and give up.

In their forthcoming book, Switch, Chip and Dan Heath cite the success of two professors from West Virginia University who were trying to persuade people to eat a healthier diet. They realized early in the process that a campaign built around “eat healthier” was too ambitious, too vague, and unlikely to succeed — there were simply too many variables involved.

But as they continued to analyze the problem, the researchers kept circling back to milk, the single largest source of saturated fat in the typical American’s diet. Their calculations revealed something remarkable: By switching from whole milk to skim, most people would immediately drop to the USDA recommended levels of saturated fat.

Their public awareness campaign was then created with one simple, clear objective: Persuade more people to choose skim rather than whole when reaching for milk in the grocery store. Within six months, the market share of skim milk in their target study had doubled. By narrowing their focus to one key trigger variable rather than trying to solve the much larger (and probably insoluble) issue, they effected change through clarity.

The success story here is not their marketing (although it was well planned and executed). It’s the rigorous study that allowed them to say, with confidence, ”We’re going after milk.” And, just as importantly, the guts to place their entire bet on it.

When taking on a goal that’s big and nebulous and hard to know exactly where to begin (like, say, creating community), narrow your focus.

Find your skim milk.

That’s where you’ll win.