The Vine

Vine alum Walker Smith and colleagues at The Futures Company have released a new report on consumer values and behavior in the post-abundance economy.

Prevailing media reports suggest that we’ve entered a new era of frugality — that consumer behavior is now, and forevermore will be, defined by penny-pinching and learning to live without. To win customers, be prepared for discounts and early-bird specials and a death spiral to the bottom of the price ladder.

On the other end of the spectrum is the view that this is just a temporary blip. Human nature being what it is, we’ll resume our indulgent ways as soon as the economy turns around.

This divide between extremes — fear vs. greed, or asceticism vs. hedonism — is missing the point, Walker says. Human behavior is never that simplistic and black-and-white, and you can’t extrapolate future events by simply observing present (spend nothing) or past (spend everything!) activity.

Instead the authors advise a more intelligent and nuanced approach, a value proposition grounded in neither fear nor greed, but something just as timeless: Aspiration.

They write:

“[A] smaller economy does not mean that the consumer imagination will be bereft of ambition or wholly appropriated by a resignation to do without. Even with smaller household budgets, the capacity for dreaming will be as big as ever. Consumers are not going to give up on their aspirations to a better life; they will just re-channel these ambitions to fit the context of the recovery consumer marketplace.”

The report, “A Darwinian Gale,” can be downloaded here.